If Cal Raleigh Played in the Bronx, He’d Be Chasing Bonds’ 73 and Blowing Past Judge’s 62
Location Bias: Baseballs Fly Much Further—Everywhere but Seattle
For the past ten years, my friends and I have kept up a tradition: an annual golf trip with a rotating cast of 16 friends—some from high school, some from college, and others we've picked up along the way. Most years, we stick to courses around the Seattle area, but a few years back our self-appointed golf commissioner decided to mix things up and take us to Denver for what he dubbed The Denver Open. The pitch? Chicks dig the long ball (Please note the Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine reference)
That year at Red Rocks (Denver), the buzz was real. Drives that typically maxed out at 230 yards back home were suddenly rolling past 300. Everyone was hitting career bests. Between the thin air, hot weather, and those firm, dry fairways, the ball was carrying—and rolling—like never before. It was the first time we truly felt the science of elevation at work.
The analysis I will illustrate revisits and builds upon the foundational work from this 2009 analysis by Dr. Alan M. Nathan: https://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/carry.html, that explored the concept of “carry” in Major League Baseball—specifically, how atmospheric conditions like air density, wind, temperature, and elevation affect the distance a baseball travels. That original study helped define carry as the ratio of a batted ball's actual distance to its projected distance in a vacuum, and highlighted key environmental differences across ballparks, such as the notably increased carry in Denver due to high altitude.
In updating this analysis with data from the 2025 season, I found many of the same trends still hold true today. While modern tracking systems like Statcast have provided even more precise trajectory data, the underlying physics remain consistent. Atmospheric conditions—including temperature and elevation—continue to play a significant role in ball carry, and we still observe clear park-to-park variability. Notably, Denver still leads in normalized carry, while parks like Cleveland remain on the lower end of the spectrum.
That same science helps explain why baseballs fly farther in some parks than others—and why a slugger like Cal Raleigh might actually be on pace to challenge Aaron Judge's 62 or even Barry Bonds' 73 if he played in a different home stadium.
Ranked Ballparks based on Distance per Similar Contact
Below are the top-ranked home team stadiums to hit in, based on a metric I calculated: Distance divided by Launch Velocity. By grouping this metric into Launch Angle tiers, we can isolate similar bat contact conditions and determine which locations yield the most distance. In this setup, the primary remaining variable is the game's location.
(Note: the table is sorted based on the 30 degree - 33 degree launch angle tiers)
The Colorado Rockies rank 1st for almost every launch angle tier on Distance Hit per Exit Velocity. Ranked near the bottom are teams closer to sea level or colder spring weather such as the Seattle Mariners, Red Sox, St Louis Cardinals, and Tampa Bay Rays
From the chart above, it's clear that the Colorado Rockies have a significant advantage in hitting distance compared to teams like the Mariners, Red Sox, Rays—and really, most of MLB. Now that we've established that Rockies hitters benefit from their environment while Mariners hitters may be at a disadvantage... let’s dig a little deeper. After all, when you look at the data, it’s not hard to see why the Mariners had such slim odds of landing Ohtani over the Dodgers.
The scatter plot on the left represents the 2025 MLB Balls in Play. the large dots are the Colorado Rockies, while the small tiny dots are batted balls by other teams.
The red dots represent any batted ball that has an above average hit with Distance Travelled / Launch Velocity.
The main takeaway from this view is simply the Colorado Rockies have a lot of red dots! This means the ball goes further than most.
Location Factor Ratios (Distance Hit)
Below is the calculated Location Factors based on the analysis. Mariners are set to 1.000 as I am using them as the baseline for this analysis. As you can see by the chart below, the the balls hit in Colorado travel roughly 9% further than the balls in Seattle.
Since this article is about how many Home Runs Cal Raleigh would hit in New York, we see a roughly 2-3% distance improvement from 30-39 degree launch angles at Yankee Stadium. The Mets have a very similar increase as well.
One ballpark that continues to rank near the bottom in terms of carry is Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, home of the Mariners. The consistently poor carry values here suggest that Seattle presents one of the toughest environments in MLB for hitting home runs. There are several plausible reasons for this:
Cool, humid climate: Seattle has relatively cool temperatures during much of the baseball season, especially early in the year. Cooler air is denser, which increases drag and reduces ball carry.
Humidity and marine air: Despite the common misconception that humid air is denser, in colder climates like Seattle, moist marine air can still feel heavy due to lower temperatures and increased water vapor absorption at low altitudes.
Low elevation: Seattle sits near sea level, meaning balls don’t benefit from the altitude-assisted travel seen in parks like Denver or even Phoenix.
Prevailing winds: Wind patterns in the Pacific Northwest may also play a role, often not favoring hitters—though this is more variable and requires directional spray angle analysis for deeper insight.
The similarities between the 2009 article and today’s data emphasize how consistently environment shapes the game, even as equipment and player training evolve. This updated work reaffirms the value of incorporating climate and location into ballpark analysis and highlights the importance of looking beyond raw home run totals when evaluating hitter performance.
How Many HR would Cal Raleigh have if his Home Games were at Yankee Stadium?
I chose Yankee Stadium for this analysis because it's one of the most extreme hitter-friendly environments in baseball—especially for left-handed power. While Cal Raleigh is a switch hitter, the vast majority of his home runs come from the left side, where he faces right-handed pitchers. Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch, just 314 feet down the line, has long been a haven for lefty sluggers. It’s the same ballpark where Aaron Judge hit 62 home runs in 2022—benefiting from a park that inflates power numbers. Comparing Cal’s output in Seattle to what it might look like in the Bronx highlights just how much his home park may be suppressing his true power potential.
% of Batted Balls that were Home Runs - Based on Velocity Tiers and Launch Angles
One key detail: there hasn’t been a single home run at T-Mobile Park this season with an exit velocity under 96 mph. Meanwhile, Yankee Stadium has allowed multiple right-field home runs below that threshold. The shorter porch in right gives left-handed hitters a clear advantage. While the chart above isn’t perfect—there are a few combinations where T-Mobile outperforms—it still illustrates the core idea: softer contact can leave Yankee Stadium, especially on warm days. The inconsistencies likely come down to weather, wind, or the exact placement in right field. But overall, the data shows a clear difference—what’s an out in Seattle can be a home run in the Bronx.
Recalculating Cal’s Home Runs
Cal Raleigh has hit 32 home runs so far this season—18 on the road and 14 at T-Mobile Park. But how many might he have if he played his home games at Yankee Stadium, where Aaron Judge hit 62 homers just two seasons ago?
This analysis breaks it down in three steps:
1) T-Mobile Park Spray Chart Visualization… His Actual Results
We start with a full spray chart of all Raleigh’s home runs and near-misses, giving a visual sense of how his power plays across different parts T-Mobile Park.
2) Yankee Stadium Overlay
Next, we re-map those same batted balls using the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, with a focus on its famously short right-field porch.
3) Location Factor Adjustment
Finally, we apply a +2.7% location factor to account for the ball generally carrying farther in New York than in Seattle—based on average atmospheric effects like temperature, elevation, and humidity.
Together, these charts provide a reasonable estimate of how many more home runs Raleigh might have in a more hitter-friendly environment.
1) Cal Raleigh Actual Hit Chart at T-Mobile
14 Home Runs at T-Mobile Park (32 Total) - Project 62.5 Home Runs for the season
The Above chart is Cal raleigh’s actual hit chart at T-Mobile Park. The balls in play on this view were hand selected as either home runs or nearly home runs.
Cal has 14 HRs at T-Mobile (Green Dots), albeit, there are another 10 balls that were either Non-HR Hits (yellow) or Flyouts (red).
2) Cal Raleigh Actual Hit Chart at T-Mobile vs Yankee Stadium Dimensions
T-Mobile Park Dimensions: 14 HRs (32 Total)
Yankee Stadium Dimensions: 15 HRs (33 Total)…. Project 64 HR for the full season
3) Cal Raleigh HRs if Playing at Yankee Stadium with Location Factor (+2.7% Seattle —> New York)
T-Mobile Park Dimensions: 14 HRs (32 Total)
Yankee Stadium Dimensions: ~18 HRs (36 Total)… Projected 70.3 Home Runs for full the Season
Let’s pretend Yankee Stadium was transported to Seattle and T-Mobile Park did not exist. If Cal played on a Home Field with the dimensions of Yankee Stadium he would have 1 additional HR this season.
He had roughly 3 HRs to right that were warning track at T-Mobile that likely would have gone out with Yankee Stadium Dimensions… However, he had two HRs to left field that were possible just doubles or outs at Yankee Stadium.
This hypothetical places Cal playing home games at Yankee stadium with location factor. Based on the analysis, Cal would have an additional 4 HRs this year if playing at Yankee stadium with location factor.
In the final chart, we added an additional 2.7% distance to each ball hit by Cal to account for the New York Climate and slightly warmer weather (vs Seattle). If you count, there are 17 balls that clear the fence. There an additional 3 (yellow) balls that are borderline. I would estimate at least one of these balls would just clear the wall at Yankee Stadium (Likely the yellow ball in left field)…. For an additional 4 HRs
Based on the analysis, Cal would have an estimated 18 Home Runs at Yankee Stadium, for a total of 36 HRs this Season
Ballpark-Adjusted Power: Raleigh’s 70+ HR Trajectory in the Bronx
This analysis not only highlights how dramatically a player’s stats can be shaped by his home park, but also underscores just how extraordinary Cal Raleigh’s 2025 season truly is. Despite calling one of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly parks home, Raleigh leads the league in home runs—a feat made even more remarkable when you consider how many of his warning-track outs in Seattle would be no-doubt blasts in a place like Yankee Stadium. With 18 home runs on the road and just 14 at T-Mobile, Raleigh’s park-adjusted total suggests he’d have 36 long balls through 81 games in the Bronx—putting him on a 70-home-run pace. That’s ahead of Judge’s AL record of 62 and just a few behind Barry Bonds’ all-time mark of 73.
But this isn’t just a fun thought experiment—it’s a powerful reminder of how context defines performance in baseball. Ballparks aren’t just backdrops; they’re active players in the game. In an era obsessed with stats, it's time we fully appreciate how environment, elevation, and architecture shape careers. Cal Raleigh isn’t just having a breakout season—he might be making home run history, and doing it in one of the toughest hitting environments in the league. If he played in the Bronx, we wouldn’t be wondering if he’s underrated—we’d be wondering if anyone could stop him from becoming the new king of the long ball.
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-Adam Jacobson
