Inside the No Fly Zone: The One Defensive Adjustment That Could Win Julio a Gold Glove
My older brother in Little League used to play way too deep in the outfield. He didn’t want to risk an error, so he’d let catchable fly balls drop in front of him. It wasn’t laziness—it was calculated. Better to give up a single than to drop the ball and feel embarrassed.
Julio Rodríguez plays deep too—but for a totally different reason. The “No Fly Zone” is real, but it’s designed to protect against doubles and rob home runs, not to avoid mistakes. Is it a modern outfield philosophy? Prioritize slug prevention over batting average—give up the single, just don’t let anyone take the extra base.
I started this research hoping to build a case for Julio’s 2025 Gold Glove campaign… AND it is 100% true that he has elite range. However, along the way, I was surprised to uncover a few cracks in the armor—subtle flaws in his defensive profile that complicate the narrative.
The No Fly Zone. The Julio Rodríguez Story
When Julio came up to the majors, he originally shined as a 5-tool player. His rookie season, he surpassed expectations with excellent hitting, power, speed, throwing and defense. When he struggles at the plate, we still see him robbing home runs and making amazing plays in Center field. Below, I am introducing to you the 2025 hit chart of players on the opposing team. The area highlighted in neon blue is essentially Julio’s “No Fly Zone”.
The first thing I noticed about this visualization is that the No Fly Zone is huge! Julio really does cover a lot of distance. Going from the left furthest portion of the no fly zone to the right furthest potion of the no fly zone, he is covering 200 feet!
Think about this. For a sharp line drive / fly ball travelling 350 feet in the air with a launch angle of 25 degrees, it would take 3.2 seconds for the ball to hit the ground. If Julio is covering roughly 100 feet in 3.2 seconds, that is equivalent to 21 mph average!
Highlighted in Light Blue is Julio’s No Fly Zone. I am defining it that way because for the most part, Julio catches the vast majority of fly balls or line drives that land in this region. With a couple exceptions, most of the areas have a .250 batting average or less (mostly .000)
Almost no balls go over Julio’s head for a double or Triple. However, looking at the chart, you can see the majority of balls hit between the no fly zone and the infield are hits.
Should Julio Rodriguez Consider Playing More Shallow?
If the warning track and wall are already well within Julio’s No Fly Zone, wouldn’t it make more analytical sense for him to play shallower—cutting off more singles—while still having enough time to track down the occasional deep ball? in the above chart, I shared the batting averages of each area on the field, but I did not show how many balls in play would land in each area. In the below chart, you will see the vast majority of balls contacted, are expected to land short of the no fly zone.
The chart to the left shows all fly balls and line drives hit against the Mariners, along with where each one landed. The area highlighted in yellow represents Julio Rodríguez’s No Fly Zone—the part of the outfield he consistently covers with ease.
What stands out immediately is how few balls are actually hit into the No Fly Zone, while a noticeable cluster of hits land just in front of it.
It is always impressive when Julio robs a Home Run, or covers a ton of ground to catch a would be double in the warning track. But as a team, is it costly to rob 2 or 3 home runs a year while giving up dozens of extra singles up the middle? Before we do the math, I want you to check out this quick video of Julio Robbing a home Run in May.
The grab is amazing! Aaron Goldsmith yells “Julio, just took it back! NO FLY ZONE!”.
Then Angie Mentink says, “We continue to marvel at the ground he covers.”
Now, I would like you to watch the video one more time. What I see is a Superstar casually tracking (70% effort or so) toward a ball, then timing the jump and robbing Grisham. Slightly bittersweet because I needed Grisham’s HR on my fantasy team!
i just wanted to make the point with the video. Does Julio even need to play that deep to rob all those doubles or HRs? He seemed to have plenty of time. Later on in the article, we will analyze this deeper and estimate Predicted Hits and Runs saved if Julio plays more shallow.
How does Julio’s Defense Compare to Peers?
Before diving into Grand Salami Time’s own custom sabermetric model—built using raw Statcast data to evaluate how Julio Rodríguez stacks up against other MLB center fielders—let’s first take a look at the key existing defensive metrics already used across the league.
These industry-standard stats provide a foundation for understanding how well Julio is performing in the field, and they set the stage for our deeper analysis to follow.
Key Defensive Metrics for Julio Rodríguez
Some of the mainstream defensive stats suggest Julio is among the best defensive Center Fielders in baseball. However, based on these defensive stats, there is a clear AL 1st half winner for Gold Glove. Ceddanne Rafaela
1) Outs Above Average (OAA) – Baseball Savant
Julio ranks 6th in MLB and 4th in the AL with 9 Outs Above Average. Ceddanne Rafaela leads MLB with 14.
OAA is a modern, Statcast-based metric that evaluates how many outs a player makes above or below average, factoring in the difficulty of each play. It considers variables like ball direction, hang time, exit velocity, and distance traveled, giving a highly detailed look at range and reaction.
2) Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) – FanGraphs
Julio ranks 3rd in MLB and 2nd in the AL with 10 Defensive Runs Saved. Ceddanne Rafaela leads MLB with 12 (Tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong).
DRS is a well-established sabermetric stat that estimates how many runs a player has saved on defense compared to the league average. Unlike OAA, it also includes factors like throwing arm, positioning, and errors.
3) Defensive WAR – ESPN
Julio is tied for 2nd in MLB with a 1.4 Defensive WAR, just behind Ceddanne Rafaela (1.7). He’s tied with Myles Straw (last year's Gold Glove winner) and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Defensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is derived from stats like DRS and UZR. It converts runs saved into estimated wins added through defense, providing a broad value metric that’s easy to compare across positions and player
Introducing Grand Salami Time’s Hits Saved and Runs Saved Metrics
We’re excited to unveil Grand Salami Time’s very own sabermetric system: a custom method for evaluating defensive performance using raw Statcast data. This includes two new stats:
Hits Saved
Runs Saved
These metrics are built off the same batting average heat map we previously shared, which showed how opposing hitters perform against the Mariners’ defense by zone. Now, we’re applying that framework specifically to Julio Rodríguez to see how he stacks up against league averages.
How Hits Saved is Calculated
Let’s break it down using Julio’s 2025 performance as an example:
Julio faced 404 total fly ball/line drive opportunities to center field.
Of those, 162 went for hits against him.
To determine his effectiveness, we compare this to what a league-average center fielder would’ve allowed in the same zones, using the same number of opportunities.
We use zone-specific batting averages from across MLB and apply them to the exact number of balls hit into each rectangular section of Julio’s coverage area. By multiplying the league-average batting average for each zone by the number of Julio’s fly ball opportunities in that zone, we get a model of what an average defender would have allowed.
Result:
A league-average center fielder would have given up 166 hits in the same scenarios.
Julio gave up 162 hits.
That means Julio saved 4 hits compared to league average — a modest but measurable edge.
How Runs Saved is Calculated
To calculate runs Saved, we will start with Hits Saved and determine how many of the hits were singles, doubles, or triples (Home Runs are not considered in this calculation). I will then utilize calculated runs created from this Fangraphs paper. The article is a little older, but the data should still be directionally relevant for the purpose of the article.
Estimated Hit Value based on where it lands
https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/linear-weights/
Single = 0.70 Runs
Double = 1.00 Runs
Triple = 1.27 Runs
Home Run = 1.65 Runs
We will use the chart to the right to determine if a hit estimated to be a single, double, or triple
Based on our analysisOn average, Julio’s 4 hits saved were each worth 2.10 bases—roughly equivalent to a double. Julio’s 4 defensive hits saved are worth 4.2 defensive runs saved because he is preventing doubles compared to the league average. This is likely related to him playing deeper in the field and preventing high value hits.
Julio Rodriguez Defensive Hits and Runs Saved vs the Gold Glove Favorite (Our Results)
The hands down favorite this year for AL gold glove in center field is Ceddanne Rafaela of Boston. He is ranked 1st in MLB for all three main metrics: Outs Above Replacement (Baseball Savant), Defensive Runs Saved (Fangraphs), and Defensive WAR (ESPN). But, what is the comparison with our own analytics?
Julio Rodriguez vs Ceddanne Rafaela - Grand Salami Times Results
At Grand Salami Time, our analysis confirms what other defensive metrics are already suggesting: Ceddanne Rafaela has been more effective than Julio Rodríguez at preventing hits and runs in 2025.
While Julio excels at cutting off doubles and patrolling deep center with elite range, Rafaela is simply eliminating more hits overall. According to our custom metrics, Rafaela has saved 11 hits, compared to Julio’s 4, and that translates to an estimated 8.1 runs saved for Rafaela versus 4.2 for Julio.
It’s important to note that the quality of Julio’s defensive plays is higher—many of his saved hits would’ve been doubles, while Rafaela’s are mostly singles. But in the big picture, Rafaela’s total impact is greater.
Which raises the question:
If Julio played more shallow and prevented more of those short outfield singles, could he match—or even surpass—Rafaela’s value?
The numbers—and the positioning maps—suggest he just might.
Ceddanne at home has the short porch with the green monster in left field. He uses that to his advantage and focuses covering ground more shallow and toward right center.
Would J-Rod be a Gold Glove Center Fielder if he Played More Shallow? The Analysis and Results
Julio’s range is elite—by both the eye test and advanced metrics, he’s one of the best in the game. The #1 thing Ceddanne Rafaela does better than Julio is positioning, or where he plays on the field. Ceddanne covers more ground shallow and toward right field, while Julio covers ground deeper and more central. The main issue with positioning yourself deep is that the majority of balls hit to Center Field are shallow. Let’s revisit the chart below, that illustrates the amount of fly ball opportunities against the mariners this season. Julio’s best coverage is deeper than where the majority of balls would have landed
Each of the rectangular zones in the chart on the left are uniform in size, allowing for straightforward comparison. The most logical area to examine—just outside the yellow-highlighted “No Fly Zone”—is the darker shaded region with 13 fly ball opportunities. In 2025, the batting average against Julio in that zone is .462, a stark contrast to most regions within the No Fly Zone, where averages typically range from .000 to .250.
This indicates that while Julio occasionally makes plays in that outer region, he’s far less consistent there than within his core coverage area. In other words, balls hit just in front of the No Fly Zone are not only more frequent—they’re far more likely to fall for hits.
Results: Hits Saved and Runs Saved with J-Rod Playing Shallow
We did the math and found that there would be a significant reduction in hits toward Center field! Utilizing our Runs Saved metrics, we can determine if the singles saved is worth more than the additional doubles given up if Julio played shallow. Along with the actual results of Julio Rodriguez’s defense this year, we tested two scenarios:
1) What if he played 12.5 feet more shallow?
2) What if he played 25 feet more shallow?
We found the optimal defensive placement for J-Rod would be playing 12.5 feet more shallow because he would have the most Runs Saved at 13.2. Even though the “Extreme” example of 25 feet provides more hits saved, if he played 12.5 feet more shallow he would save more runs because he would be able to prevent more extra base hits vs the Extreme 25 feet example.
Could Optimized Positioning Make Julio a Gold Glove Front-Runner?
Our analysis suggests that if Julio Rodríguez were positioned just 12.5 feet shallower, he could very well surpass Ceddanne Rafaela in both hits saved and runs prevented—putting him in strong contention for the 2025 Gold Glove.
While these projections aren’t an exact science, they underscore an important truth: a player’s raw talent is only part of the equation. Defensive impact is also shaped by positioning, coaching philosophy, and the use of analytics.
It’s possible that Boston’s outfield strategy is optimized through detailed defensive modeling, allowing Rafaela to maximize his opportunities to prevent hits. The Mariners may be employing a different—but equally thoughtful—approach, perhaps emphasizing power prevention or versatility across various matchups.
The takeaway isn’t a critique, but rather a conversation: even elite defenders like Julio may have room to elevate their value further through micro-adjustments in alignment and strategy.
Final Takeaway:
Julio Rodríguez is already one of the best center fielders in baseball. But our analysis shows that a simple shift—playing 12.5 feet shallower—could unlock an even higher defensive ceiling and potentially earn him the Gold Glove. With elite speed and instincts, J-Rod may just need a nudge from analytics to become the best defensive center fielder in the game.
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-Adam Jacobson
