Judge vs. Raleigh: A Mostly Unbiased Breakdown of the AL MVP Race
I still remember the first time I watched Ichiro take the field in 2001. As a fan in Seattle, you could feel right away this was not just another rookie. Every at-bat was an event, and every throw from right field seemed like a frozen rope with a chance to cut down even the fastest runners at third. Ichiro did not win MVP because of a single stat like WAR. He won because he changed the way the game felt. Statistically, he ranked sixth in the AL in Wins Above Replacement with a 6.0 batting FWAR (7.7 batting and defense).
If I had a vote that year and focused only on the numbers, I probably would have leaned toward Jason Giambi, who led the league in WAR, on-base percentage by a wide margin, slugging, and OPS. But there was more to the story. Oakland reached the playoffs as a wild card, while Seattle broke the all-time wins record with 116. Ichiro brought energy, style, and a draw unlike anyone else, helping the Mariners lead the majors in attendance at over 43,000 fans per game. The electricity in the ballpark was real, and it was not just about one stat line. The award ultimately went to the player who lifted not only Seattle but also the country of Japan to new heights in Major League Baseball.
Looking simply at FWAR, if you take away Ichiro’s 7.7 and replace him with a minor leaguer, the stat would suggest the Mariners could have still easily made the playoffs that season with 108 wins. But witnessing it all in person, Ichiro elevated an entire team of mostly misfits projected to finish 3rd in the AL West (out of 4 back then) by ESPN. I do not think they would have been a playoff team without him. His impact went far beyond the numbers and the record books.
Full Disclosure - Unconscious Bias
Unconscious bias refers to the automatic and unintentional mental shortcuts that influence our judgments, decisions, and actions without our conscious awareness. I grew up a Seattle Mariners fan, but I owned more Yankees hats than any other team. The Mariners have always been my favorite team, and the Yankees are my second favorite. As a kid, my parents would ship my brother and me off to visit my Grandma, Grandpa, Aunt, Uncle, and cousins in New York twice a year. Both of my parents grew up in New York, and I always felt like I had a little New York in me.
I carried a strong sense of New York pride. I would tell my friends that the pizza and bagels in New York are so much better than Seattle’s, and I would brag about the Yankees’ 27 World Series titles. I was thrilled when A-Rod joined the Yankees because it felt like he was coming back to one of my teams. I am primarily a Mariners fan, but I was cheating with the enemy.
The 2025 AL MVP comes down to New York’s Aaron Judge and Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, two players who have put up historic but very different seasons. The debate is simply, who is the most valuable player. Below is a side by side comparison of Cal Raleigh vs Aaron Judge, you can find in our Player Comparison Tool.
Aaron Judge’s Case
If I had a vote, which I do not (Ryan Divish, please consider me for BBWAA membership), I would vote for Aaron Judge if I cared primarily about offensive production. In 2025, Judge was simply the best hitter in baseball.
Judge represents the classic MVP profile:
Elite offensive efficiency: He leads the league in batting average (.331), OPS (1.149), and several advanced metrics including batting WAR (10.1).
Plays for a big market team: MVP candidates often come from teams in New York, Los Angeles, Boston, or Chicago. While this is partly because many of the best players happen to play there, media coverage may also play a role. For example, in 2020, Jose Abreu won the AL MVP despite being third in FWAR behind two players on division-leading Cleveland.
Main contributor on a playoff team: “Most valuable” often implies the player who is most important to a playoff team, similar to how Judge is the centerpiece of the Yankees. At the same time, there are cases where the best player in baseball wins MVP even without reaching the postseason, as Shohei Ohtani did with the Angels in 2021 and 2023.
Judge’s main drawback is that he plays a less demanding defensive position, so his value is almost entirely tied to his batting.
Cal Raleigh’s Case
Raleigh has forced his way into the conversation by making history.
Unprecedented power: Hitting 60 home runs as a catcher is something baseball has never seen. Sixty homers is one of the game’s greatest milestones, no matter the position, and Raleigh reaching it at catcher makes it historic.
Positional weight: He is doing this while managing one of the most demanding defensive jobs in the sport. Last year’s Platinum Glove winner is still among the game’s best behind the plate, all while producing at an elite level offensively.
Narrative impact: Record-breaking seasons often resonate strongly with voters, and Raleigh’s switch-hitting power from the catcher position is unlike anything before it. Judge, by contrast, has already been recognized with multiple MVPs, and voter fatigue is a very real bias that can make repeat winners face an uphill climb.
Stadium factor: Raleigh plays in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, making his power even more impressive. If he played his home games at Yankee Stadium, our projections suggest he would have about five additional home runs, which would put him past Judge’s single-season record of 62 (despite baseball savant’s calculations suggesting he would have less HR in Yankee Stadium)
Image below is from Baseball Savant, which I believe does a great job visualizing and explaining the impact of a stadium (unlike baseball savant’s xHR which seems to show different results): https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
Seattle has an 89 in Hits and 92 in HR (100 being average), while yankee stadium has a 94 in Hits and 119 in HR. I know the math doesn’t work perfectly this way, but imagine if Cal Raleigh added 94/89 = 5.6% divided by 2 = 2.8% (half the games) more hits AND had an additional 5 more HR from our Statcast analysis. Then Cal would have ended the season with a .253 Batting average and 65 HR if he played half his games at Yankee Stadium. If he played in NY for 1/2 his games in Seattle, i have his OPS estimated at .992… Quite a bit better, but still a ways from Judge’s 1.149.
Division Winner: Winning a division and getting the 2nd seed bye is a bigger achievement than making the playoffs with a wild card spot. If playoff positioning is a factor, Cal gets the slight edge.
The Verdict
Raleigh may be trailing Judge in some of the key hitting statistics, but he makes up for it with his power, defense, and leadership (helping bring the Seattle Mariners an AL Division Title for the first time since 2001). The fact that Cal Raleigh’s salary is so affordable ($17.5M/year for 6 years) gave the Mariners the ability to sign key additions like Naylor and Suarez. Salary is not something ever considered in an MVP discussion but Cal Raleigh is getting paid $1.9M per Win above Replacement ($17.5M 2025 salary/9.1 WAR).
In comparison Aaron Judge’s 2025 salary was $40M. With a WAR of 10.1, the Yankees are paying him $4.0M for every win above replacement (40M/10.1).
This might sound silly, but the value of Cal Raleigh’s contract is valuable. The mariners are paying better than 1/2 the price per win above replacement for Cal, compared to Judge. If you are talking who is the most valuable player in the American League? It is not simply the player who put up the best offensive stats.
Aaron Judge is the clear winner of the Hank Aaron Award. He might even be the winner of the AL MVP. All I am saying is that there is a very strong case that if we are talking about who is the most “valuable” player in baseball, instead of who is the best player in baseball…. Cal Raleigh might be the right choice.
Witnessing it locally firsthand, if I had a vote (which I do not), I would cast it for Cal Raleigh because of all the intangibles. However, if I were a voter who wasn’t watching the Mariners every night or writing weekly analytical deep dives about them, I would probably vote for Judge based on the stats. Unfortunately, most voters are not watching ROOT Sports (rest in peace) but are instead catching the Yankees occasionally on national TV.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments: Will Cal win the MVP? Who would you vote for?
