Why Dominic Canzone could be an X-factor for the Mariners this season

(Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

A surprise contribution can make a huge impact on a team over the course of a full MLB season. Last year, it was Jorge Polanco, who had pretty low expectations entering the season, but quickly proved so valuable at the plate that he was in the lineup every day regardless of where they had to play him on the field. He was instrumental in the Mariners’ push to win the AL west and their playoff victory over the Tigers in the ALDS.  Enter Dominic Canzone.

So far this season, he has been confined to a platoon role with Robles and Refsnider in the RF/DH positions. But he is coming off a 2025 season that showed incredible improvement over his previous self, and has started off 2026 on fire. In 82 games last season, his hard-hit rate, bat speed, exit velo, and strikeout rate all improved drastically. His BABIP was over .350, a large increase from 2024, but it appeared to be mostly due to improved skills, not luck. He was worth 1.5 fWAR, slashed .300/.358/.481, and had a wRC+ of 141 during the regular season, but then struggled in the playoffs. For many, that was a sign that it was just a fluke, and that he would regress significantly in 2026. But as of 4/3/26, he is batting .333 with two home runs, two singles, a double, a walk, and only two strikeouts in his first 15 at-bats. At the same time, Robles and Refsnider have gotten off to painfully slow starts at the plate.

Dominic Canzone’s Fangraphs page

If this trend continues, the Mariners may be forced to make Canzone an everyday player, even against left-handed pitchers. It isn’t that far-fetched to believe he could be the next Jorge Polanco if he is able to replicate the success of last season. That 1.5 fWAR extrapolates out to 3.0 fWAR over a full 182 games, so even if he has a bit less production than that, it would still be about the same as Polanco had in 2025 (2.6 fWAR). That kind of contribution from a guy they aren’t really counting on would be huge for this team, especially if he can hit against both lefties and righties. And if his 2025 means anything, then he can indeed, because he had a 113 wRC+ against southpaws in limited action. It would really solidify the lineup and provide extra consistency to have his name there every day.

Up until 2024, Canzone was known as a contact-oriented batter with little power. He struggled in his first MLB experience in 2023. While he didn’t strike out often, he sacrificed batspeed for contact and was less selective of which pitches to swing at, leading to a low walk rate and a low exit velocity. He was able to put the ball in play and got the barrel on the ball, but it wasn’t hard enough to pay off. In 2024, he seemed to have completely changed his approach, becoming more of a three true outcome hitter. He showed surprisingly good pop, had higher batspeed, walked more, and chased less, but he struck out too often and was boom or bust with his quality of contact. It was clear that he was selling out for more power and it wasn’t working. He also completely lost the ability to hit left-handed pitching, batting .000 in 13 at-bats, while Scott Servais and Dan Wilson (correctly) did everything in their power to keep him from facing lefties.

Here’s a side-by-side comparison of his 2023 and 2024 seasons through the lens of Baseball Savant:

One common thread ran through both Canzone’s 2023 and 2024, however: trouble hitting breaking balls. Baseball Savant defines breaking balls as sliders, curveballs, knuckleballs, and all their variants. Knuckle/curves, sweepers, and slurves are all part of this category, and Canzone struggled to hit them. His xWOBA on breaking balls was well under .300 both seasons, and in 2024, opposing pitchers took full advantage of this, throwing more breaking balls to him than fastballs. In terms of actual results, he has also struggled a bit against offspeed pitches, like changeups, splitters, forkballs, and screwballs. But opposing pitchers didn’t make it a point to throw more offspeed pitches to the extent they did with breaking balls, so they obviously thought it was less of a weakness. Plus, his expected numbers are good and the sample sizes have been small, so it is more difficult to tell if bad luck played a significant role.

Canzone’s stats by pitch type

In 2025, however, he seemed to find a way to have his cake and eat it too. His strikeout rate went down drastically, and his whiff rate improved. At the same time, his quality of contact was greatly improved. His exit velos went up, his launch angles improved, he pulled the ball in the air more often, and he regained the ability to hit lefties. This coincided with a bunch of changes to how he set up in the batter’s box, and some minor tweaks to his swing. He closed off his stance more, widened his feet, and moved up in the box.

He had a slightly higher batspeed than in 2024, and his attack angle was more optimal on average, 12° vs 16°. Attack angles between 5° and 20° yield the best results in general, so an average towards the middle of that range is excellent. Most importantly, he performed very well against breaking balls, turning a former weakness into a strength. He finally became a complete hitter, successfully combining contact and power for the first time in his career.

Canzone vs. Breaking Balls

This kind of drastic improvement can of course raise some red flags. It almost seems too good to be true. But the data shows that he made real changes to his stance, swing, and approach that led to improved production on the field, even if the sample size was limited. The ups and downs of a full MLB season demand that hitters constantly adjust to how pitchers are attacking them, push through cold streaks, and come out on the other side. And his hot start in the WBC/Spring Training, and the first week of the 2026 regular season after his awful 2025 playoff performance is a sign that he has the ability to adjust and get back to mashing.

The bottom line is this: Dominic Canzone has done the hard work. He didn't just get lucky in 2025 — he rebuilt himself as a hitter, and the mechanical evidence backs that up. The playoff struggles stung, but they don't erase what he showed over 82 games, and his fast start to 2026 suggests he hasn't lost a step. If anything, bouncing back quickly after a rough postseason speaks to his mental resilience as much as his physical tools. That is underlined by the fact that his first couple MLB seasons didn’t go well at all, yet he still made big adjustments every year to try and correct that result.

The Mariners have a decision to make, and it may come sooner than expected. With Robles and Refsnider yet to find their footing, the door is wide open for Canzone to prove himself as a critical piece of the puzzle. Seattle is a team built to compete right now, and an everyday Canzone, a guy who can punish both lefties and righties, make consistent hard contact, and provide lineup stability… That could be the difference that finally pushes them over the top. Jorge Polanco showed last year that unexpected contributors can change the complexion of a team's fortunes. Now it's Canzone's turn to make his case.